Outbound Canada update finds Canadian travel to U.S. continues to decline

In its latest Outbound Canada update, the Conference Board of Canada is reporting that the first half of 2025 saw 15.5 million Canadians return home from an overnight outbound trip; 93% of 2019 activity and a 7.7% decline compared to 2024.

The preliminary data for January to June 2025 and for the first two months of the summer travel season also found that the volume of transborder trips is down 17.7% compared to last year, while overseas activity is up 6.6%.

The Outbound Canada update also reported that:

• The first two months of the summer travel season saw 2.4 million Canadians return home from an overnight trip to the U.S., a 24.5% drop compared to last summer.
• The period also saw 1.97 million overseas trips, an 8.6% increase compared to 2024.

In terms of the United States, the update data reveals the following:

• A little more than 8.16 million Canadians returned home from an overnight transborder trip throughout the first half of 2025, a 17.7% drop compared to 2024.
• Trips by air neared 4.7 million, compared to 5.2 million last year (-11.2%). Canadians also made 3.3 million trips by auto during the period, a 30.6% drop compared to 2024.
• The first two months of the summer travel season (May-June) saw 2.38 million Canadians return home from an overnight transborder trip, compared to 3.16 million in 2024 (-24.5%).
• The period saw auto trips decline by nearly one-third (-32.0%), while non-auto travel fell 16.9%.

On the other hand, the Conference Board of Canada’s Outbound Canada update reported that close to 3.25 million Canadian arrivals were recorded in Europe and the UK throughout the first half of 2025 — a larger volume than reported in both 2019 (20.1%) and 2024 (6.5%). And during the first two months of the summer travel season (May-Jun) saw more than 1.72 million arrivals in European destinations; a 3.8% increase compared to 2024.

As for the Asia Pacific region, more than 1.88 million Canadian arrivals were recorded in the Asia-Pacific region throughout the first half of 2025, a 12.9% jump over last year, and a 4.0% increase compared to 2019. And close to half (48.4%) of the activity reported during the period was to destinations in China (including S.A.R.), and North Asia, a similar share as seen in 2024.

Turning to the Caribbean and Latin America, the Outbound Canada update reported nearly 3.84 million arrivals from Canada throughout the first half of 2025, 104% of the volume recorded in 2019 and a similar level of activity as last year.

Compared to last year, activity to Mexico (11.8%) and destinations in South/Central America (1.4%) has increased, while total arrivals in Caribbean destinations have declined, due primarily to a drop in activity to Cuba (-25.9%).

Looking at consumer confidence, the update found that after four consecutive months of steady gains, the Index of Consumer Confidence weakened in August, as a growing share of households anticipate deteriorating economic, financial, and employment conditions.

And while respondents did not display strong pessimism, the shift to mildly negative sentiment was enough to pull confidence downward with the Index of Consumer Confidence dropping by 3.2 points in August to 59.5.