Oxford Economics Survey Charts Impact Of Conflict

In a just-released, research briefing that charts the impact on business sentiment as a result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Oxford Economics reports that:

  • Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has triggered a marked deterioration in business sentiment, based on our latest survey of risk perceptions. The war is now cited as the greatest global economic risk.
  • Businesses have become much more pessimistic about prospects for global growth in 2022. The mean expectation has fallen 1.3ppts since January – three times the size of the downward revision to our own baseline forecast. Around a quarter of respondents view risks to the global economy as heavily skewed to the downside.
  • Businesses have also revised up sharply their expectations for inflation this year, with the mean rising 1.5ppts. Three-fifths of respondents expect supply chain disruption to persist into 2023.
  • Respondents appear more concerned about the impact of Russia’s war on the global economy than on their own businesses. While around a half expect the conflict to lower activity slightly in their business in 2022, only 1-in-50 anticipate much lower activity.
  • The survey was completed by 165 businesses from March 2-11.

Jamie Thompson, Head of Macro Scenarios for Oxford Economics, said that: “The latest Oxford Economics Global Risk Survey shows that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has triggered the most widespread worsening of sentiment since the height of the pandemic.”