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Oxford Economics Survey Charts Impact Of Conflict

In a just-released, research briefing that charts the impact on business sentiment as a result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Oxford Economics reports that:

  • Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has triggered a marked deterioration in business sentiment, based on our latest survey of risk perceptions. The war is now cited as the greatest global economic risk.
  • Businesses have become much more pessimistic about prospects for global growth in 2022. The mean expectation has fallen 1.3ppts since January – three times the size of the downward revision to our own baseline forecast. Around a quarter of respondents view risks to the global economy as heavily skewed to the downside.
  • Businesses have also revised up sharply their expectations for inflation this year, with the mean rising 1.5ppts. Three-fifths of respondents expect supply chain disruption to persist into 2023.
  • Respondents appear more concerned about the impact of Russia’s war on the global economy than on their own businesses. While around a half expect the conflict to lower activity slightly in their business in 2022, only 1-in-50 anticipate much lower activity.
  • The survey was completed by 165 businesses from March 2-11.

Jamie Thompson, Head of Macro Scenarios for Oxford Economics, said that: “The latest Oxford Economics Global Risk Survey shows that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has triggered the most widespread worsening of sentiment since the height of the pandemic.”


Posted in Canada, COVID-19, News, Trends & Research, Ukraine Russia