What’s the outlook for luxury travel, Virtuoso has some answers

Virtuoso provided those attending with the latest leisure travel outlook from Oxford Economics during its 2026 Symposium in Seoul, Korea earlier this month.

Executive Vice President, Strategic Communications, David Kolner presented the findings which highlight continued global growth through 2028 despite revised projections.

Since December 2025, international forecasts for 2026 have been adjusted lower, while domestic travel has edged slightly higher, with continued growth in both segments still expected through 2027 and 2028.

In the U.S., forecasts for both international and domestic travel were revised downward for 2026, though overall growth remains stable. China recorded the strongest gains in the update, with international leisure travel revised higher across all three forecast years and domestic leisure travel for 2026 also raised, with overall growth projected at up to three times the global average.

Against a backdrop of mostly single-digit leisure travel growth projected by Oxford Economics, Kolner said performance across the Virtuoso network is running at roughly double that pace.

Booking data from its U.S. travel agency members showed preferred partner sales increased by 20 percent year-over-year in both January and February 2026, followed by a 14 percent increase in March.

Demand for future travel also remains strong, with preferred bookings made one to two years in advance up 23 percent in the first quarter compared to 2025. Average daily rates for preferred partners increased between 10 and 12 percent per month during the quarter.

Live polling conducted during the Symposium offered a real-time perspective on the current business conditions and expectations for the year ahead.

When asked how their business has been impacted by the Middle East crisis, 70 percent of Virtuoso member agencies and 66 percent of partners said clients are rerouting or choosing alternate destinations, while low cancellations at 11 percent among member agencies and eight percent among partners reflect luxury travel’s continued resilience.

When trips are postponed or canceled, concerns around personal safety and the risk of being stranded are the primary drivers, cited by 66 percent and 64 percent of member agencies, respectively.

As travel plans shift, member agencies reported demand being redirected to other regions, led by Continental Europe at 59 percent, followed by North and Southeast Asia at 39 percent and Latin America and the Caribbean at 35 percent.

Additional insights came from the global Owner/Manager Outlook Survey, conducted earlier this year during Virtuoso Forums across the network’s nine regions.

The findings point to widespread confidence among agency leaders, with 78 percent of global respondents expecting sales to increase in 2026 – 41 percent projecting double‑digit growth, 12 percent of which forecast gains of 21 to 50 percent.

Outlooks were largely consistent across regions, though respondents in Australia & New Zealand and North & Southeast Asia expressed slightly more caution, while agencies in Greater China reported the strongest growth expectations, with 26 percent anticipating sales increases of 21 to 50 percent.

When asked which factors are expected to impact luxury travel in 2026, geopolitical conflicts ranked highest across all regions at 88 percent, followed by political uncertainty at 75 percent.

Artificial intelligence was viewed more optimistically, with nearly twice as many respondents viewing it as an opportunity (35 percent) rather than a threat, led by agency owners in Canada and the U.S.

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