Amex GBT forecasts stable global car rental prices for 2026-27

American Express Global Business Travel (Amex GBT) is forecasting relatively stable car rental prices globally in 2026-27, with only moderate increases expected across many major markets.

According to the company’s latest Ground Monitor, Canada and the United States are both forecast to see rental rates increase between 1.5% and 2%, with restrained GDP growth and improved vehicle supply helping to keep increases modest. However, rising auto insurance costs could put upward pressure on prices.

Amex GBT also reports “significant growth” in the number and value of city surcharges in North America, including airport fees and day-of-week charges. Once limited to a handful of cities, these additional charges are becoming more common and could push up the overall cost of renting.

Sara Andell, Director of Consulting Strategy, Amex GBT Consulting, explained that: “Looking globally, we expect prices to be stable, with moderate increases in geographies where local conditions – including taxes and the availability of cars to rent – could push up prices.”

Elsewhere, Australia is forecast to see increases of 3% to 3.4%, while rates in Brazil and Chile could rise between 2% and 4%, as healthy leisure and corporate demand drive growth in Latin America’s car rental sector.

Across Europe, increases are expected to remain modest in most markets. The Netherlands is the exception, with projected increases of 4% to 5%, driven by changes to motor vehicle taxes that are increasing the cost of ownership for rental fleets. France and Spain are forecast to see rates remain essentially flat, with increases of no more than 0.5%. Germany is expected to see increases of 1% to 2%, Scandinavia 1% to 2.5%, and the United Kingdom 0.6% to 1.3%.

The report also examines when it makes more financial sense to rent a car or use ride hail. Amex GBT modelled airport-to-city-centre return journeys in its top 10 U.S. car rental cities, factoring in local tolls and parking costs.

For a one-day rental, renting was cheaper than ride hail in five of the 10 cities. When the rental period was extended to two days, ride hail was cheaper in every city examined. Amex GBT notes that multiple journeys, or destinations where parking is free, can tip the equation back in favour of renting.

Looking ahead, geopolitical disruption could put pressure on rental costs by affecting supplies of aluminum and helium used in vehicle and semiconductor production. Increasingly sophisticated vehicle technology is also making cars more expensive to repair.

At the same time, improved vehicle availability is giving corporate travel programs more flexibility. With providers rebuilding inventory as supply chains recover, Amex GBT says it is now less risky for companies to consolidate their car rental programs with one or two providers, potentially giving them greater leverage to negotiate better rates in return for committed volume.

View the report here.