Brand USA takes the measure of international trends, sees positives in 2026 mega events

With Canadian visitor numbers to the U.S.A. continuing a downward slide, there was not a lot of discussion about Canada during the recent Board of Directors meeting by Brand USA.

For example, Canadian visitations to the USA in January this year were down 22% as compared to January 2025, driven by both an unfavourable dollar exchange rate and a stormy political climate.

But reports to the Board by researchers were generally bullish on the outlook for U.S. tourism, with an optimistic focus on a trio of signature tourism events in 2026 – the 250th anniversary of America’s declaration of nationhood (America 250); the 100th birthday of the storied Route 66 highway (Route 66 Centennial); and the massive FIFA World Cup football tournament.

These will provide opportunities to use Brand USA destination marketing platforms, including the relatively new America the Beautiful campaign/website, launched last October, and the American Originals story telling website.

“Despite the headwinds we are facing, be it global events affecting travel or rising fuel costs or global competition, I am pleased with the direction we are taking to maximize the impact on building global demand for travel to all corners of the U.S.,” said Fred Dixon, the president and CEO of Brand USA.

“Although we have had a reduction in federal funding (the federal funding match), we are hopeful that this will be restored in due course,” he said.

Chelsea Benitez, senior director of research at Brand USA, presented figures that confirmed some pronounced travel trends – namely that Canadian visitations to the USA were down significantly. The drop in Canadian arrivals was – 21% in 2025 as compared to 2024, equating to 4.2 million fewer people from Canada travelling to their cross-border neighbour.

On the other hand, Benitez reported that arrivals from Mexico had increased considerably, with a 6% increase ’25 vs. ‘24, equating to 1 million more Mexican visitors. Mexico is now the number one international inbound market to the United States, she said.

With Canada driving the overall performance trend, there was a total of 68.3 million international arrivals to the US in 2025 – down 6% as compared to 2024.

But early indications are that the U.S. is on track to post tourism gains. International visitation is projected to reach about 70.6 million in 2026, representing a 3% YOY growth (an increase of 2.3 million visitors). International arrivals to the US reached 72.4 million in 2024, and 79.4 million in 2019.

Fueling the growth is international (non-stop) airline seat capacity, which will remain at elevated levels in 2026, after strong growth through 2024 and 2025, said Benitez. There are 253 origin airports in 104 countries that operate flights to 65 U.S. destinations.

She also reported that the average spend per international visitor had increased by 5%, to US$3,600, in 2025. This helped offset the overall impact of fewer visitors, she said.